Sources US Senate, US House of Representatives, MIT, Brookings Institute, National Conference of State Legislatures, Federal Electoral Commission, National Governors Association.
They need a net gain of 23 seats to win a majority.
In some states, early voting has been going on for weeks and turnout has surpassed previous records for non-presidential years.
Research by Dustin Dienhart, Andrea Jones-Rooy, Dhrumil Mehta, Mai Nguyen, Nathaniel Rakich, Derek Shan and Geoffrey Skelley.Republicans 51, democrats 49 51 needed for a majority, here comes dude perfect gift shop the math: the Grand Old Party (GOP) does have a big advantage over the Democrats in this showdown, because the Democratic party is defending 26 seats (including two independents, who usually vote with them).Regulations around early voting vary depending on the state and can be opened between four and 50 days before the election day.Voters will head to the polls on Tuesday, November.As of 2 November, they have brought in 649m (500m against "only" 312m for Republicans.US midterms 2018: full live results.Democrat, republican, key race Pennsylvania's 17th district, democrat Conor Lamb won a shock special election win in March.Democrats gained 48 seats in the House and five in the Senate - what would be known as the "Watergate Class" mdm promo code of Congress.The good news for Dems is that a record 39 Republicans many of whom were anti-Trump have chosen to bow out instead of contest their seats in November, and some of those are in key swing states such as Florida and Pennsylvania.That's not a good sign for Republicans.But the Democrats do still have a slight advantage in the polls.
In the same period the Republicans have made a 23 net gain only three times, but the most recent was in 2010, in the midterm elections of Barack Obama's first term.
States electing governors in 2018 Democrat, open Democrat, incumbent standing again Republican, open Republican, incumbent standing Not electing this year Key race Florida African American Democrat Andrew Gillum won an upset victory in the primary, bolstered by heavy financial support from Tom Steyer, a billionaire.
Remapping of electoral districts happens in the US after every census.Several key committee chairs and Speaker of the House Paul Ryan have already joined what's become a modern record for retirements from a majority party - a telling sign that they think Republicans may not be a majority much longer.So for Democrats, some of their best hopes are in seats where the incumbent is not standing again.Higher probability # How the House has swung historically.WHO IS running IN THE midterms?They have plenty of deep-pocketed donors pouring their own money into independent expenditures, and the Republican Party itself is flooding money into key races across the.One hopeful note for the Democrats is that Nevada and Arizona are both open races in which the incumbent senator is not running and both were only narrowly won by the Republicans in 2012.A struggling economy, on the other hand, can be a death sentence for the incumbent party's mid-term prospects.These are staggered, as members of the Senate serve six-year terms.Democrats are hoping to capture four Republican-held seats.Such an outcome would have immediate and drastic implications for the president's ability to advance his political agenda and Democratic oversight of his administration.In 2006, the fundraising advantage flipped to the Democrats, as did control of Congress.2018 outlook: The Democratic generic ballot lead has shifted over the course of the past year.Campaign fundraising, money makes the (political) world go round.
Each state gets two senators, irrespective of population, so Wyoming has as many as California, despite the latter having more than 60 times the population.
Solid D 95 D, likely D 75 D, lean D 60 D, toss-up 60 both.
That trend tailed off a bit, but the current eight-point margin is on the lower edge of where it has to be for a blue wave, even if it falls short of a tsunami.